Assessing Risk for Violent Extremism: Formulation, Theory, and Sensemaking

This article explores theory-based risk formulation in violent extremism. It begins by restating the case for formulation in this context and describing its role in organizing information relevant to the individual case to expose the key drivers and potential mitigators of that person's risk. This article focuses on what happens next-applying theory, particularly evidence-based theory, to the vital process of bringing together the key operational elements into an explanatory statement about the risk of violent extremism in the person under consideration. Two evidence-based theories are examined here as examples: situational action theory and the theory of planned behavior. A fictional case study is used to illustrate how applying different theories can accentuate different parts of the case and different features of the person's risk and what those differences could mean for the formulation to follow and the risk management plan thereafter.