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First Record of Dundubia annandalei Boulard from Bangladesh, with Predictive MaxEnt Modelling of Climate
Babu Saddam1, Shahamat Jawad2, Mohammed Abul Monjur Khan2
1College of Plant Protection, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China.
Abstract:
This study presents the first record of Dundubia annandalei Boulard in Bangladesh and assesses its potential range dynamics through MaxEnt modeling under current and future climate scenarios (under the 2041-2026, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 time periods). A total of 63 specimens, collected from various locations during field surveys in February-March 2025, were identified based on morphological characteristics. The species distribution model exhibited excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.967). Precipitation of the warmest quarter (64.4%), elevation (10.8%), and precipitation of the driest month (9.1%) were identified as the most influential environmental factors. Under current climatic conditions, the suitable area is predicted to cover 861,481 km2, representing 5.02% of the studied region. Future projections suggest range contraction (SSP585, 2041-2060) and expansion under all chosen emissions scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), but significant expansion under extreme warming (SSP585), especially during 2061-2080 and 2081-2100. The potential distribution may extend to Bhutan, China, Myanmar, Laos, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Under climate change scenarios, the results highlight the potential for this species to emerge as a major agricultural concern in the future.
