Circulating Tumor DNA for Minimal Residual Disease Detection and Recurrence Prediction in Upper Gastrointestinal...

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a promising non-invasive biomarker for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD) and predicting recurrence after curative treatment, yet evidence in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), and gastric cancer has largely been examined within individual tumor types. In this scoping review, we mapped this evidence across all three malignancies and clarified key methodological and clinical considerations. Following the PRISMA-ScR guidelines, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library (3 April 2026) for studies linking ctDNA to disease-free, recurrence-free, or overall survival after curative-intent treatment. Twenty-seven studies (1746 patients; 10 ESCC, 4 EAC, 8 gastric, and 5 mixed) were included. Across every tumor type, postoperative ctDNA MRD was the most informative timepoint, with independent multivariable hazard ratios for disease-free, recurrence-free, or event-free survival of 2.8 to 21.8, whereas preoperative ctDNA was seldom prognostic. Serial monitoring further improved performance and flagged recurrence 78 to 278 days before imaging. Tumor-informed assays showed higher sensitivity than tumor-agnostic ones (80% vs. 35%), though direct comparisons were limited; correction for clonal hematopoiesis was essential for tumor-agnostic assays, and blood-based assays performed poorly in diffuse-type and peritoneal disease. Postoperative ctDNA MRD is a consistent, independent prognostic biomarker across upper gastrointestinal cancers that adds prognostic information beyond conventional staging and pathological response, supporting prospective interventional trials of ctDNA-guided management.