Modeling chronic kidney disease progression using a continuous-time multistate Markov model: Transition dynamics and...

Chronic kidney disease is a progressive condition that impairs renal function and can ultimately lead to kidney failure. Its progression involves multiple intermediate stages, making conventional survival models inadequate for capturing the complexity of disease transitions. This study aimed to model chronic kidney disease progression using a continuous-time multistate Markov process to evaluate stage-specific transition dynamics and the effects of clinical and demographic factors. A retrospective cohort study of 194 patients with chronic kidney disease, comprising 1506 clinic visits at Jimma Medical Center between February 2019 and February 2024, was conducted. The multistate Markov framework was used to estimate transition intensities, transition probabilities, mean sojourn times, and next-state probabilities and to assess the effects of clinical and demographic characteristics on transitions between chronic kidney disease stages. Transition probabilities indicated an increasing likelihood of progression to more advanced stages over time, accompanied by decreasing probabilities of remaining in the same stage. The mean sojourn times in stages 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 4.33, 4.44, 5.79, and 4.57 months, respectively. Patients with hypertension were significantly more likely to transition from stage 4 to stage 5 than those without hypertension (hazard ratio = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.79-3.84). Diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease were the primary factors associated with chronic kidney disease progression. Mean sojourn times and next-state probabilities complemented transition intensities by describing the expected duration of each chronic kidney disease stage and the likelihood of subsequent transitions. These findings provide insights into chronic kidney disease progression and may support stage-specific management and intervention strategies.