[Simulation of Multi-scenario Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in the Yihe River Basin]

Land use change stands as a pivotal element influencing the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. Conducting a thorough investigation into the inherent influencing mechanism through which land use change impacts the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems holds paramount importance for the rational planning of land use patterns and the effective realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality objectives. Leveraging land use data of the Yihe River Basin spanning the period from 1980 to 2020， this study employed the PLUS model to simulate land use change across four scenarios， namely natural development， cultivated protection， urban development， and ecological protection. Subsequently， the InVEST model was applied to evaluate carbon storage under various scenarios from 1980 to 2020 and for the year 2030. Additionally， the Geodetector was adopted to identify and analyze the driving forces behind the spatial variability of carbon storage. The results show that： ① From 1980 to 2020， the Yihe River Basin witnessed the largest reduction in cultivated land area and the greatest increase in construction land area. The predominant forms of land transformation primarily occurred between cultivated land and grassland， as well as between cultivated land and construction land. Under different scenarios in 2030， the acreage of cultivated land is projected to persist in its declining trend， whereas the area allocated to construction land is anticipated to maintain a continuous expansion. ② Over the period spanning from 1980 to 2020， the carbon storage within the Yihe River Basin exhibited a general downward trend. Carbon storage in 2030 will decline to different degrees under different scenarios， with the smallest decline under the cultivated land protection scenario and the largest decline under the urban development scenario. In general， the spatial distribution of carbon storage aligned closely with the spatial distribution of land use types. ③ The conversion of different land use types had a significant impact on carbon storage changes， among which the transformation of cultivated land into construction land had the most obvious effect on carbon storage. ④ The dominant factor influencing the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Yihe River Basin from 1980 to 2020 was land use type， followed by elevation and NDVI. The driving factors mainly exhibited nonlinear enhancement and dual-factor enhancement. The research results can provide scientific references for optimizing the allocation of land resources in the Yihe River Basin and promoting the region's sustainable development.