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[Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Decoupling Effect Between Carbon Emissions and
Jian Li1,2, Chen-Xu Wang1, Xi-Xian Li1
1School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China.
Abstract:
In the context of unbalanced regional development posing severe challenges to the coordinated advancement of the "dual carbon" goals, it is of critical scientific significance to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emission and economic growth decoupling at the provincial level in China. Based on panel data from 30 provincial regions from 2003 to 2022, this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors by integrating the Tapio decoupling model, exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA), and LMDI decomposition model. The results show: ① The carbon decoupling status exhibited a significant regional gradient pattern of "eastern leading, central and western regions catching up." ② The carbon decoupling effect in provinces showed significant spatial dependence, with 83.3% of provinces exhibiting path dependence characteristics, and a prominent spatial club convergence effect forming between neighboring provinces. ③ Economic growth was the most essential positive driving factor for the increase in carbon emissions, with a cumulative contribution of 531 843 tons from the east, central, and western regions. The reduction of energy intensity was the primary negative inhibiting factor, with a cumulative contribution of -320 516 tons from the east, central, and western regions. Carbon emission intensity had turned into a significant negative suppression in the eastern region, while showing fluctuating positive driving in the central and western regions. The suppressive effect of industrial structure optimization primarily appeared in the later stage in the eastern region, and its impact on carbon emissions, along with population size, showed significant regional heterogeneity. ④ The efforts towards decoupling showed phase evolution and regional gradient differentiation; improvements in energy intensity were the only continuous positive factor promoting decoupling. This research provides important scientific evidence for formulating precise and coordinated regional emission reduction strategies.
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