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[Spatiotemporal Coupling Between New-type Urbanization and Carbon Emission Intensity in the Yangtze River Economic
Shao-Jie Zhang1, Can Zhou1,2, Tie-Qiao Xiao1
1School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230601, China.
Abstract:
As global climate change intensifies, carbon emissions increasingly constrain sustainable development. To investigate the coordinated relationship between new urbanization and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this study examines 108 cities within the region from 2010 to 2022. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method and downscaling models were employed to measure new urbanization levels and carbon emission intensity, while an adjusted coupling coordination model analyzed their spatiotemporal coupling evolution. Furthermore, the XGBoost-SHAP model was introduced to investigate key factors influencing coupling coordination and their non-linear mechanisms. The results show: ① New-type urbanization and carbon-emission intensity exhibited marked spatial and temporal variation with a clear negative association; performance ranked as downstream > midstream > upstream. ② Coupling-coordination improved overall, yet regional disparities and internal polarization persisted. The spatial pattern shifted from an initial "high-east/low-west" distribution to a "multi-core" configuration, with downstream cores consolidating their advantage. ③ Mechanisms were non-linear and region-specific: Population density and income level contributed most to coordination, whereas industrial structure and government expenditure displayed threshold effects that differed across regions. On this basis, we propose region-differentiated policy recommendations to provide actionable pathways and decision support for green, high-quality development across the Belt.
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