[Carbon Emission Prediction of Construction Industry in Western China Based on Combination Model and Multi-scenario...

The objective of this study is to scientifically assess the evolution pattern of carbon emissions in the construction industry in China's western region， identify key driving factors， and construct a carbon emission prediction system through model optimization， providing a decision-making basis for balancing economic growth and the "dual carbon" goals. Based on the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method， the carbon emissions of the construction industry in the western region from 2003 to 2022 were calculated. A prediction framework was constructed by integrating LASSO-XGBoost-RFE feature selection and SPBO-BP optimization models， and five scenarios were simulated to explore the peak path. The research shows that： ① The carbon emissions of the construction industry in the western region exhibited a phased characteristic of "rise-fluctuation-stability，" with indirect carbon emissions accounting for 93.9%. ② Urbanization rate， energy intensity of the construction industry， fixed asset investment， completed floor area of construction industry buildings， and added value of the secondary industry were key influencing factors. ③ Compared with other benchmark models， the prediction performance of the target model was significantly improved， with R² reaching 0.959 7. ④ The very low-carbon， low-carbon， and benchmark scenarios were predicted to peak in 2028 （612 million tons）， 2029 （650 million tons）， and 2030 （704 million tons）， respectively， while the high-carbon and very high-carbon scenarios would peak in 2039 （867 million tons） and 2040 （1265 million tons）. The research results can provide important theoretical support and technical references for the low-carbon development of the construction industry in China's western region.