[Assessment and Scenario Prediction of Pollution-carbon Reduction Synergies Toward Dual Carbon Goals in Shanxi...

Shanxi Province is a typical resource-based region and a major energy hub in China. Facing critical challenges of high carbon emissions and air pollution， this province urgently needs to advance synergistic control of pollution-carbon reduction. Utilizing the low emissions analysis platform （LEAP） with energy consumption as the system boundary and 2020 as the base year， this study predicts energy consumption， greenhouse gas （GHG）， and air pollutant emissions from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios： baseline， low-carbon， and carbon neutrality. The predicted CO₂ emissions for 2021-2023 were cross-validated against the actual CO₂ emissions from energy consumption to verify the accuracy of the model. Subsequently， based on these predictions， it employed decoupling analysis， the synergy elasticity coefficient of pollution-carbon reduction， and the LMDI model to quantitatively assess synergistic effects and driving mechanisms. The results indicate that the baseline scenario failed to achieve the carbon peak target， with air pollutant emissions projected to increase until approximately 2045. In contrast， the low-carbon and carbon neutrality scenarios would achieve carbon peaking in 2029 （534.78 ×10⁶ t） and 2025 （492.45×10⁶ t）， respectively. Under the carbon neutrality scenario， GHG emissions were projected to drop below 200 ×10⁶ t by 2060， and atmospheric pollutant emissions would begin a sustained decline around 2030. GHG and air pollutant emissions exhibited correlated emission patterns and synergistic mitigation potential； compared to the baseline scenario， both optimized scenarios advanced synergistic control by 15-20 years， characterized by GHG-dominant synergy. Analysis of driving factors identified economic development as the primary driver （contributing 904.98%）， while energy structure optimization and energy intensity reduction were key constraints. Control measures aligned with dual-carbon objectives effectively facilitated synergistic governance. Industrial transformation， stricter environmental policies and controls， and optimization of the energy consumption structure will enable Shanxi Province to achieve carbon reduction and air quality improvement targets sooner.