[Land Use Change and Biodiversity Change in Shaanxi Province Under Multi-scenario Simulation]

Excessive exploitation of land resources has driven global land-use changes that diminish ecological spaces， posing significant challenges to biodiversity conservation. To synergize ecological protection with high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin while balancing biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic needs in Shaanxi Province， this study designed three scenarios-Baseline （natural evolution）， Beautiful Shaanxi （ecological priority）， and Harmonious Shaanxi （coordinated development）-based on intrinsic linkages among land-use types， disturbance intensity， and biodiversity. Using the GeoSoS-FLUS and FLUS-Biodiversity models， we simulated land-use patterns and spatial heterogeneity of Mean Species Abundance （MSA） for 2035 and 2050. XGBoost-SHAP modeling further deciphered MSA drivers. Key findings reveal that： ① Structural shifts in most land-use types occurred， with moderately disturbed forests expanding significantly across all scenarios while dryland areas decreased most markedly. ② Under natural trends， Shaanxi's MSA rose from 0.533 （2020） to 0.539 （2050）， whereas the Beautiful and Harmonious scenarios elevated MSA to 0.546 and 0.544 by 2050， confirming their positive biodiversity effects. ③ MSA exhibited pronounced regional disparities-lower in densely populated economic zones and higher in natural resource-rich areas. ④ Driver contributions to MSA exhibited significant heterogeneity： Population density was the dominant negative factor， while annual potential evapotranspiration and temperature acted as primary positive drivers. This study demonstrates that scientifically coordinating land-use changes with biodiversity conservation， implementing targeted protection policies， and enhancing governance efficacy constitute effective pathways to achieve biodiversity targets.