[Spatio-temporal Evolution of Supply and Demand of Ecosystem Services and SSP-RCP Scenario Prediction in Hebei...

As one of the core economic circles in China， the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is confronted with the challenge of a sharp increase in the demand for ecosystem services during the rapid urbanization process. Urban expansion， population concentration， and industrial upgrading have led to a continuous increase in the pressure on ecological resources such as water resources， carbon sink capacity， soil retention， and biological habitats. The imbalance in regional ecological management and the contradiction between sustainable development have become increasingly prominent. Scientifically assessing and accurately predicting the dynamics of supply and demand for ecosystem services has become a key breakthrough in solving the problems of regional ecological security and sustainable development. The SD-PLUS coupling model was used to predict the land use demand in Hebei Province in the future. The supply and demand evolution laws of water conservation （WY）， carbon storage （CS）， soil conservation （SC）， and habitat quality （HQ） in the historical and future periods of Hebei Province were evaluated based on methods such as the InVEST model and spatial assignment method. The spatio-temporal patterns of supply and demand matching of four types of ecosystem services in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2070 were revealed by using the supply-demand ratio of ecosystem services， and suggestions for optimizing the balance of supply and demand of ecosystem services in Hebei Province were put forward. The results showed that there were significant differences in land use demand in Hebei Province under different SSP-RCP scenarios. However， the demand for cultivated land and water areas decreased， while the demand for construction land increased significantly. Over the past two decades， both the supply and demand of water conservation in Hebei Province have declined， while the supply and demand of soil conservation have shown an increasing trend. The supply of carbon storage has decreased， while the demand has increased. The supply and demand of habitat quality have remained relatively stable. In the future， the changes in the supply and demand of the four ecosystem services under the three different scenarios will basically continue the trends of the past two decades. Between 2000 and 2020， Hebei Province exhibited spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the matching of ecosystem service provision and requirement， accompanied by a significant supply-demand mismatch. The imbalance of supply and demand matching will intensify in different scenarios in the future.