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Clinical Prognostic Factors Associated With Relapsing Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein Antibody-Associated
Matthew Human1, Christopher G S Gilmartin1,2, Athanasios Papathanasiou2
1Mental Health and Clinical Neuroscience Academic Unit, School of Medicine, NG7 2UH, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom.
Background And Objectives:
It is currently difficult to accurately predict who, after the index event of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD), will develop relapsing disease (R-MOGAD). Several clinical features have been reported as possibly predictive, but none have been validated in clinical practice. We used a prospectively designed analysis to assess a combined model of reported clinical prognosticators for developing R-MOGAD in 101 patients with MOGAD (86% with onset in adulthood) from 3 UK specialist centers.
Methods:
A multivariable binary logistic regression model using variables identified from a scoping literature review was fitted in a retrospective clinical data set of patients with MOGAD (Nottingham MS & Neuroinflammation Centre [NUH]), with validation analysis in 2 independent data sets (Walton NMOSD Specialist Centre [WSC]; Imperial College London [ICL]). Secondary analysis investigated time to first relapse using Cox proportional hazards on the combined cohort. Results from the significant variables from the initial analysis were further examined in a meta-analysis of relevant literature studies.
Results:
In the Neuroinflammation - Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust data set (n = 33), treatment with steroids ≥10 mg for ≥ 3 months after the index event was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of developing R-MOGAD (p = 0.006) with sensitivity 83% (95% CI 59-96) and specificity 73% (95% CI 45-92). A persistently positive MOG-IgG status, age at onset, optic neuritis at onset, and sex were not significant predictors of developing R-MOGAD. To assess generalizability, this predictor was tested in 2 independent data sets. In Walton Centre Liverpool (n = 39), not receiving prednisolone ≥10 mg ≥ 3 months was associated with R-MOGAD (OR = 9.7; 95% CI 2.1-45.4; sensitivity 63%; 95% CI 38-84; specificity 85%; 95% CI 62-97). In ICL (n = 29), the association was directionally consistent but inconclusive, with wide confidence intervals crossing unity (OR = 2.7; 95% CI 0.5-13.4; sensitivity 73%; 95% CI 39-94; specificity 50%; 95% CI 26-74). For the combined cohort (n = 101), not receiving prednisolone ≥ 10 mg for ≥3 months was associated with increased odds of developing R-MOGAD (OR = 6.2; 95% CI 2.6-14.8; p < 0.0001). Conversely, prednisolone ≥10 mg ≥ 3 months was associated with a lower hazard of relapse (HR = 0.47; 95% CI 0.24-0.91; p = 0.024). Median follow-up for monophasic patients was 42 months (IQR: 17.5-64.5).
Discussion:
Prednisolone ≥10 mg for ≥ 3 months after the index event was associated with a lower likelihood of relapsing MOGAD. This association was supported in first external cohort and directionally consistent but inconclusive in a second, smaller cohort. Further prospective multicenter studies are required to assess the reproducibility and clinical utility of this association.
