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Updated: Sep 3, 2026
High-throughput Detection Method for Influenza Virus
Published on: February 4, 2012
Association of baloxavir treatment timing with serial interval and household transmission of influenza through a
Jihyeon Kim1, Minju Ryu1, Hiroshi Nishiura2
1Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Republic of Korea.
Objectives:
Baloxavir treatment is associated with reduced influenza transmission within households, and the serial interval varies by treatment status. However, it remains unclear how baloxavir-induced changes in the serial interval relate to household transmission. We aimed to quantify the model-based association between baloxavir treatment timing and the serial interval and household transmission risk.
Methods:
We conducted a household survey of influenza cases in Japan between October 2018 and February 2019. We defined a likelihood-based model integrating the serial interval distribution by treatment status and the secondary attack rate (SAR) using individual-level data from index cases. Using this model, we estimated the reduction in the serial interval associated with baloxavir treatment.
Results:
Compared with untreated index cases, baloxavir-treated cases were estimated to have a serial interval density reduced by 31.54% following treatment. Treatment within 24 hours was associated with a 0.2534 reduction in the area under the curve, with smaller reductions as treatment was delayed. Earlier treatment was associated with a shorter, more concentrated distribution, whereas treatment 72 hours after onset resembled untreated cases.
Conclusions:
Our findings highlight that baloxavir treatment is associated with a shorter serial interval and lower estimated secondary household transmission risk. We provide model-based estimates suggesting that earlier administration is associated with a greater reduction in serial interval density and estimated transmission risk, which may inform public health strategies for infection control.
