The climate change dilemma of ski destinations: adaptation becomes maladaptation

Climate change is progressively eroding the operational viability of ski tourism, while measures intended to sustain winter seasons can generate new vulnerabilities. This study examines how technical interventions, infrastructure reinforcement, and activity-expansion strategies shape adaptation and maladaptation risk in Japan's ski sector. We develop an exploratory Snow Reliability Line (SRL) screening framework that links elevation-based snow-reliability exposure, publicly documented resort actions, and maladaptation coding. The exposure framework is calibrated with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1991-2020 station climatology and tested through multi-parameter sensitivity analysis. It combines Alpine SRL research with a Japan-oriented regional adjustment and a document-based assessment of adaptation and maladaptation pathways. The maladaptation evaluation relies exclusively on conservative, document-based policy analysis of publicly available resort materials. The exploratory classification reveals a spatial and operational divide. High-elevation and northern resorts retain relatively stable winter conditions, whereas low- to mid-elevation sites are more frequently classified as snowmaking-dependent or critically marginal. Maladaptation risks are concentrated in the A1-B1-Dead and A1-B1-C1 pathways, where activity expansion, extended operations, accessibility incentives, and fixed winter infrastructure are associated with higher aggregate energy demand, opportunity costs, and path dependence. The findings show why ski-destination adaptation should be evaluated together with mitigation, anticipatory governance, investment flexibility, and year-round carbon accounting. Among the 14 resorts in the two highest-risk pathways, six show no documented transition planning, indicating potential continuity-driven maladaptive exposure distinct from action-driven lock-in.