Quantifying the Evolutionary Potential for Delta Smelt Persistence in a Warming Habitat

Long-term persistence of managed species will depend, in part, on whether the species harbors the physiological or genetic potential to adjust to warming temperatures, and whether relevant genetic variation is modified by management practices. The critically endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is intensively managed, but little is known about the presence of genetic variation for resistance to elevated temperature. Using a pedigree and whole genome sequencing data, we characterized the genetic basis of CTMax (as a metric of upper thermal tolerance) across control and elevated rearing temperatures, alongside covarying traits (body size and degree of hatchery ancestry). Warmer rearing temperatures increased CTMax through acclimation but also resulted in reduced additive genetic variation for the trait. We observed modest heritability for CTMax at rearing temperatures of 15°C and 18°C (0.26 and 0.16, respectively), but only a limited number of loci were identified that had consistent effects on CTMax across rearing temperatures. Instead, the genomic basis of thermal tolerance was highly dependent on rearing temperature (i.e., many loci detected with a GxE effect). This temperature-dependent genomic architecture is consistent with our finding that additive genetic variation for CTMax was reduced under warmer rearing conditions, indicating a potential constraint on adaptive evolutionary change. The influence of domestication selection was indicated by changes in allele frequency, and divergence in upper thermal tolerance and plasticity, between low and high hatchery ancestry groups. Minimal overlap between loci associated with domestication and CTMax suggests that these traits possess separate genetic underpinnings. Knowledge of genetic variation supporting ecologically relevant physiological variation may be useful for captive management and may inform supplementation of fish to the wild in an ever-warming environment.