The trajectory of mangrove dynamics within the deep project area of the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone

Mangroves provide vital coastal ecosystem services, including shoreline protection, fisheries support, biodiversity conservation, and blue carbon sequestration. Using multi-temporal remote sensing and shoreline change analysis from 2015 to 2024, this study evaluates mangrove dynamics in the environmental influence zone of the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone and Deep-Sea Port, Myanmar. Mangrove area declined from 15,427.9 ha to 12,754.8 ha, representing a net loss of 17.3% and an average decrease of 253.3 ha/yr. Within the 3-km direct-impact Core Area (CA), mangrove cover contracted from 953.9 ha to 599.9 ha (37% loss; 39.1 ha/yr). Net change shifted from slight gain during 2015-2018 to loss-dominated dynamics during 2018-2021 and accelerated decline during 2021-2024. Shoreline analysis showed weak net erosion along both riverbanks, with erosion dominating the Yanbye Island margin and comparatively more coherent accretion along Made Island. Mangrove loss was concentrated within persistent and newly established embankment landscapes, consistent with land conversion and hydrological modification as important pathways of decline. Early gains included localized recolonization, some of which persisted into the following interval, but gains became progressively smaller and more fragmented. Hydrometeorological disturbances and governance constraints provided additional context but were not isolated as independent drivers. This study establishes a quantitative baseline for future monitoring and impact assessment under ongoing coastal development.