Prediction Markets in Dermatology: Ethical Considerations for Physicians

Prediction markets increasingly allow participants to take financial positions on biomedical outcomes, including clinical trial results and US Food and Drug Administration decisions. Dermatologists may possess specialized expertise that helps them interpret emerging therapeutic data, but physician participation raises concerns about conflicts of interest, material nonpublic information, patient trust, and professional responsibility. These concerns are particularly relevant for physicians involved in clinical trials, regulatory activities, peer review, or industry consulting. We discuss the ethical implications of physician participation in prediction markets and propose principles to distinguish acceptable use of publicly available information from inappropriate trading based on privileged professional knowledge.