Human Pressure Structures Range Contraction and Recovery Potential of the Snow Leopard

Human-driven environmental change is rapidly altering species distributions worldwide, and anthropogenic activities are widely recognized as major drivers of range contraction and population decline. However, how human pressure interacts with other ecological processes to shape spatial patterns of persistence and recovery potential remains less well understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit framework integrating historical and current distributions with global human footprint data to quantify how human pressure influences range dynamics in the snow leopard (Panthera uncia). We classified the species' range into three states-lost, extant, and possibly extant-and evaluated their distribution across gradients of human footprint at multiple spatial resolutions. Our results indicate that range contraction was associated with elevated human pressure, with more than half of all lost areas (52.1%) occurring under high anthropogenic pressure. In contrast, extant populations were more frequently retained in lower-pressure environments (53.4%) and occurred predominantly within the low and moderate disturbance classes, whereas possibly extant areas exhibited an intermediate but more disturbed profile, with nearly 35.3% of their area occurring under high or very high human pressure. These spatial patterns are consistent with the geographic distribution of human footprint, with higher disturbance concentrated in southern and eastern regions and lower-impact areas persisting in northern and high-elevation landscapes. Our findings demonstrate that human footprint exerts a consistent spatial filtering effect shaping species contraction, persistence, and recovery potential. By integrating historical baselines with contemporary spatial data, we show that current distributions likely reflect not only ecological suitability but also the legacy of long-term anthropogenic impacts. This framework provides a scalable approach for conservation prioritization, emphasizing the need to limit human pressure in remaining refugia while targeting recovery in moderately impacted landscapes.