Jaguar Range-Wide Connectivity: Prioritising Core Areas and Corridors Between and Within Protected Areas and...

Anthropogenic habitat transformation has led to population declines and increasing isolation of populations of many species, particularly top predators, where small and fragmented populations often experience limited dispersal and reduced genetic diversity. Jaguars (Panthera onca), for example, have lost half of their historical range and most populations outside the Amazon biome are small, isolated and highly threatened. Here, we assess jaguar population connectivity across the species' range by identifying and ranking core areas and dispersal corridors, including linkages among Protected Areas and Indigenous Lands (hereafter, PAs). We used cumulative resistant kernels and factorial Least-Cost Paths (fLCP) in two complementary approaches: core area-based and PA-based connectivity. We identified 307 core areas for jaguar movement, covering ~7.75 million km² (55% of the current range), of which approximately half lies within PAs. The largest and highest-ranked core area spans ~6.5 million km² across four biomes (Amazon, Llanos, Chaco and Pantanal). We identified 176 dispersal corridors connecting core areas, although connectivity was not continuous across the entire range. Northern populations (Mexico and Central America) showed several connectivity gaps, whereas South America displayed a large, highly interconnected network linking the Amazon, Llanos, Chaco, Pantanal, Cerrado, Caatinga, Iberá and the Atlantic Forest's Green Corridor. In contrast, coastal Atlantic Forest patches appeared largely isolated. The PA-based analysis predicted 507 potential corridors connecting 905 PAs, including potential links absent from the core area model, particularly across Central America and between the Darién Gap, Amazon and coastal Atlantic Forest. The core-area approach provides a more biologically realistic representation of current connectivity, while the PA-based approach complements it by identifying pragmatic opportunities for long-term connectivity conservation. Together, these approaches identify priority areas and regions of uncertainty, providing a spatial framework to guide jaguar conservation and connectivity planning under accelerating global change.