The Spatial and Temporal Repeatability of Genomic Responses to Natural Selection as Demonstrated in Stickleback...

The evolution of genotypic parallelism under shared environmental conditions provides strong evidence for the role of natural selection. However, analyses typically examine genomic signatures of selection long after the putative selection event and only assess the repeatability of responses across spatial population replicates. This impedes our ability to attribute a particular response to a given selection pressure and to distinguish non-parallel responses caused by stochastic processes from those caused by local selection. As such, the consistency of natural selection over space and time is unknown, and the role of persistent local selection pressures is unclear. Here, we leveraged the natural bar-built estuary system of Santa Cruz, California, to examine the repeatability of seasonal genomic change in threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) over space and time. By comparing allele-frequency shifts that are shared across locations (spatial repeatability) with those that are shared across years within locations (temporal repeatability), we identified both spatially shared and local components of putative selection. We found that repeated seasonal outlier responses occurred more often than expected under a neutral null model. Although repeatability declined as the number of estuaries sharing an outlier increased, enrichment above neutral expectations increased with broader spatial sharing, particularly for outliers repeated across both years. While the precise outlier SNPs varied across years, estuary-specific patterns of responses were broadly consistent, suggesting an important role for local conditions. Together, our findings show that temporal sampling can reveal components of putative selection that would be missed from spatial comparisons alone. More broadly, they highlight the importance of examining repeatability over both space and time to understand the parallel and non-parallel components of adaptive genomic change.