Historical Changes in the Proportional Age Distribution of Suicide Deaths: A Longitudinal Ecological Analysis of 118...

This study described historical changes in the proportional age distribution of recorded suicide deaths and variation by sex and broad region, without interpreting death shares as age-specific risk.

A longitudinal ecological analysis used 9,396 country-year-sex records from 118 countries during 1950-2020. Suicide deaths were grouped as ages 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65 years and older. A grouped multinomial model analyzed the five-part composition, and 1,000 stratified country-cluster bootstrap samples preserved complete national time series for 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

The standardized share at ages 15-24 decreased from 16.1% in 1950 to 11.3% in 2020 (-4.8 percentage points, 95% CI [-14.4, -2.3]). Point estimates increased at ages 25-44 (+3.5 points) and 65 years and older (+1.4 points), but both CIs included no change. Compositions differed by sex and region, with substantial uncertainty where few countries reported.

The data support a decline in the proportional share of recorded suicide deaths at ages 15-24, not a demonstrated decline in youth suicide risk. Other apparent redistributions were less certain after country-clustered compositional analysis and may reflect demographic structure, reporting coverage, or changes in other age groups.