Lung Cancer Screening-Eligible Population From 2000 to 2050 in Argentina: A Simulation Study Brief Report

In Argentina, lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death. However, the National Cancer Institute lacks formal lung cancer screening (LCS) recommendations. We projected LCS-eligible populations from 2000 to 2050 under varying screening criteria.

We used Argentina's version of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network Smoking History Generator. This microsimulation model generates cohort-specific smoking histories by age and sex. We projected the number of LCS-eligible individuals in Argentina from 2000 to 2050 under (1) the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force 2021 criteria (ages 50-80 y, ≥20 pack-years, currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 y) and (2) the U.S. National Lung Screening Trial criteria (ages 55-74, ≥30 pack-years, currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 y).

Under the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force 2021 criteria, LCS-eligible individuals are projected to plateau at 1.6 million between 2018 and 2036, declining to 1.3 million by 2050; the proportion of eligible individuals aged 50 to 80 years is expected to fall from 15.1% in 2018 to 7.8% in 2050 amid population growth and declining smoking rates. Under the National Lung Screening Trial criteria, eligibility peaks at 0.8 million in 2016 and declines to 0.6 million by 2050; the proportion of eligible individuals aged 55 to 74 years decreases from 11.2% to 5.3% over this period.

Demand for LCS will gradually decrease as fewer individuals meet the eligibility criteria. Despite projected declines, between 0.5 million and more than 1 million Argentinians will remain LCS eligible by mid-century, supporting consideration of a national screening program to reduce lung cancer mortality.