Virulent Parasites Emerge in Hosts With Rising Temperatures

Climate change is increasing the risk of emerging parasites. However, whether more virulent variants will spread during climate-driven outbreaks remains unclear. Here, we aimed to explore the short-term trajectory of parasite evolution-at the phenotypic and genomic scales-across environmentally relevant temperatures in a thermally mismatched host-parasite interaction. We experimentally evolved a wild parasitic bacterium (Leucobacter musarum), across the thermal range (20°C-30°C) and extremes (35°C) of Cabo Verde-the site of field collection-in a Caenorhabditis elegans host strain. Starting from a single bacterial isolate, we then tracked phenotypic and de novo genomic changes that arose across replicate populations following ten passages of experimental evolution. We found that at 25°C, warm for the host but an average temperature for the parasite, host-mediated selection favoured higher virulence and genomic diversification by the end of the experiment. At hot temperatures, towards the limit of host survival, virulence was maintained across all parasite populations. Parasites evolved at hot temperatures also displayed a latent virulence boost, deadlier once hosts experienced a heatwave. Patterns of molecular evolution were constrained to parallel changes in fewer loci at extreme temperatures. Our findings suggest that shifting environmental temperatures will leave phenotypic and genomic signatures on evolving parasites.