Understanding visual impairment trends in the Gulf Council Countries: An analysis from 1990 to 2021 and time-series...

This research investigates blindness prevalence trends in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2021 and provides projections up to 2030. The study aimed to inform public health planning, policy formulation, and healthcare delivery in the region.

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we conducted a time-series analysis applying AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to evaluate age-standardized prevalence rates and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for blindness. Country-specific and gender-specific were analyzed. Forecasts for 2022-2030 were generated and validated against observed data.

Between 1990 and 2021, most GCC countries exhibited declining trends in blindness prevalence. Bahrain's rate decreased from 13,498.2 to 12,884.7 per 100,000, Kuwait from 12,873.8 to 12,881.4, Saudi Arabia from 14,207.2 to 14,166.8, and the UAE from 11,905.9 to 11,869.6. Oman and Qatar showed relative stability with minor fluctuations. Gender disparities were consistent, with higher prevalence among females in all countries except the UAE. DALYs also declined across the region, with Saudi Arabia reporting the highest burden. Forecasts for 2022-2030 indicate continued reductions in most countries, though Oman may experience a moderate increase.

The findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies, improved healthcare infrastructure, and gender-sensitive interventions to address visual impairment in the GCC. Continuous monitoring and international collaboration are essential to sustain progress and mitigate future burdens.