No receptor-binding domain adaptation detected in within-host H5N1 surveillance of 4,559 US dairy outbreak sequences

The 2024-2026 US H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b dairy cattle outbreak has been characterised primarily through consensus-level phylogenetics. Whether mammalian-adaptation variants are emerging at sub-consensus frequencies within infected hosts, particularly at the haemagglutinin receptor-binding domain (RBD), remains unknown because no systematic within-host variant analysis of the public sequencing corpus has been performed.

We conducted a pre-registered, corpus-wide intrahost single-nucleotide variant (iSNV) analysis of all publicly available H5N1 cattle, feline-spillover, and retail-milk sequences on the NCBI Sequence Read Archive (4559 samples across 7 BioProjects). A dual-caller concordance pipeline (iVar + LoFreq) with empirically determined allele frequency (AF) threshold (3%, set via four-criterion validation including synthetic spike-in controls) was applied to an 11-site Tier 1 mammalian-adaptation panel spanning the polymerase complex, haemagglutinin RBD, and accessory proteins. Within-host nucleotide diversity was compared across host categories.

The HA RBD sites Q226L and G228S (H3 numbering) showed zero detections across >4300 adequately sequenced samples at all AF thresholds tested (1-5%), despite the pipeline detecting other non-synonymous variants at these exact codon positions (upper 95% CI for prevalence: 0.08%). Seven of eleven adaptation sites carried statistically significant iSNV signals after Bonferroni correction (corrected α = 0.00417), though all at low prevalence (≤2.95%). Genotype stratification showed that most polymerase-site detections reflected genotype structure rather than within-host emergence: the apparent PB2 631 L→M "reversion" was largely the ancestral avian state of the D1.1 genotype (20 of 23 detections), which never acquired the 631L mammalian adaptation, with only two genuine sub-consensus events in the B3.13 background, while consensus-level PB2 701N was a fixed feature of the D1.1 genotype (10 of 14 detections) rather than independent sub-consensus emergence. Cattle exhibited significantly higher within-host nucleotide diversity than feline-spillover samples (π = 1.59 × 10^-4 vs 6.11 × 10^-5; Kruskal-Wallis p = 6.6 × 10^-15), a finding that persisted after depth-matching (p = 4.6 × 10^-5); this may reflect prolonged mammary-gland infection, though sampling differences and host biology cannot be excluded.

We did not detect HA receptor-switching adaptation (the acquisition of human-type α2,6 receptor binding via Q226L/G228S) at any tested allele frequency in the US dairy H5N1 outbreak. Sub-consensus mammalian-adaptation signals exist at polymerase-complex sites but at low prevalence, are genotype-structured rather than independently recurrent, and require functional characterisation before informing risk assessment.