Machine learning-based prediction of Metabolic Syndrome risk in the Quebec population

This study evaluates multiple machine learning approaches to predict metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk in the Quebec, Canada population. We further perform explainability analysis to interpret model predictions and identify key features driving risk classification.

This study followed the Minimum Information about Clinical Artificial Intelligence Modeling (MI-CLAIM) guideline for reporting. We used cross-sectional data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (2015-2018) for the population living in the province of Quebec, which includes 42,279 participants. Partial sampling was used to obtain a balanced dataset for model development. We evaluated seven machine learning models for the defined classification task, including Logistic Regression, XGBoost, LightGBM, TabNet, NODE, 1D-CNN and Regularisation Cocktails. Performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, AUROC, and AUPRC, and interpretability was examined using SHAP to identify key predictors of MetS risk.

After partial sampling, 7,866 participants (4,856 high-risk and 3,010 low-risk MetS cases) were included in the machine learning analysis. XGBoost and NODE showed the strongest performance. XGBoost achieved the highest accuracy (80.4%) and AUROC (84.1%), while NODE achieved the highest precision (80.1%) and AUPRC (86.0%). Explainability analysis identified age, perceived health, and sex as the most important features contributing to MetS risk predictions.

This study shows that machine learning can accurately predict MetS risk using self-reported health survey data from the Quebec population. Comparison of classical and deep learning approaches identified the optimal predictive model, and explainability analyses identified the most important features contributing to the risk predictions, which align with established clinical evidence. These results support a machine learning-driven initial screening framework for population-level early identification of high-risk individuals, enabling targeted interventions and efficient allocation of healthcare resources.