Integrating genetic predictors into subsequent breast cancer risk prediction in survivors of childhood cancer

Female survivors of childhood cancer are at high risk for developing breast cancer. The contributions of most general population primary breast cancer genetic predictors to this risk have not been explored.

Analyses included females who survived ≥5 years after their childhood cancer diagnosis with available array (N = 2096, subsequent breast cancer [SBC]=218) or whole-genome sequencing (WGS; N = 3292, SBC=101) data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and St. Jude Lifetime Cohort. We computed 99 externally-validated primary breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS). Using deep-coverage WGS, ClinVar-annotated pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes were identified. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations with SBC risk, adjusting for treatments and genetic ancestry.

Among 5388 female survivors (genetic ancestry, European: N = 4,752; African: N = 444; East Asian: N = 192), 319 developed SBC. Most (90.9%) PRSs were nominally associated with SBC risk (P < 0.05), but effect sizes varied substantially. PRSs with superior discriminatory ability had greater genome-wide coverage (e.g., 6.4 million-variant PRS, HR per SD = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.43 to 2.05; P = 4.2x10-9) and 7.7-fold higher odds (P = 7.0x10-4) of including variants in multiple DNA damage repair pathways compared with PRSs with weaker risk associations. Among survivors with WGS, 1.6% carried P/LP variants in clinical testing panel genes, which was associated with a 7.4-fold greater risk (95% CI = 3.16 to 17.19). Including genetic factors improved SBC risk prediction by age 40 (P < 0.001) compared to treatment exposures alone.

Externally-validated primary breast cancer genetic susceptibility predictors are relevant for SBC risk prediction and should be prioritized for risk stratification in survivors.