A 20-Year Follow-Up on the Risky Enterprise of Evaluating Sexually Violent Persons

Forensic evaluators commonly conduct evaluations of sexually violent persons (SVPs) but often retrofit generic risk assessments to assess SVP legal criteria. As a 20-year follow-up to "The Risky Enterprise of Risk Assessment," this article critically evaluates updated versions of common risk measures (Historical-Clinical-Risk Management Scale 20 (HCR-20^V3), Sexually Violent Risk 20 (SVR-20 V2), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R), Static-99R, and Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP V2)) to determine their appropriateness for SVP evaluations. For more balanced appraisals, risk assessments have more recently considered protective factors (Inventory of Offender Risk, Needs, and Strengths (IORNS), Structured Assessment of Protective Factors-Sex Offenders (SAPROF-SO), and Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START)), given their growth in forensic research. Importantly, some risk measures demonstrated substantial improvements. Empirical support for predicting violent sexual recidivism, the legal standard in many SVP jurisdictions, has yet to be reached. Most studies assess general sexual recidivism rather than sexual violence, per se This disconnect presents a professional challenge for evaluators in determining whether previously convicted offenders pose such a risk of sexual violence, following their criminal sentence, as to warrant indefinite civil commitment. This review underscores the need for stronger alignments between SVP legal criteria and forensic assessment instruments to solidly support their empirical use in SVP determinations.