Actual Five-year Survival After Neoadjuvant Therapy and Resection for Localized Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

To determine actual 5-year survival after neoadjuvant therapy and resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Long-term outcomes after neoadjuvant therapy and resection for PDAC remain poorly defined, as current knowledge largely relies on actuarial estimates.

Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by curative-intent pancreatectomy for localized PDAC at 2 high-volume centers between January 2015 and February 2021. Only patients with complete follow-up (death or ≥5 y) were included. The primary endpoint was actual 5-year survival from surgery.

Among 660 patients, actual 5-year survival was 34.5%. Recurrence occurred in 74.1% and was predominantly early, with nearly two-thirds of recurrences among patients who did not achieve 5-year survival occurring within 1 year after surgery. Long-term survivors had lower recurrence rates (92/228, 40.4%) and more commonly developed delayed (>2 y), locoregional, or pulmonary recurrence. The probability of achieving 5-year survival increased to 62.0% (95% CI: 56-67) and 81.9% (95% CI: 76-86) among patients who remained recurrence-free at 1 and 2 years, respectively. Actual 5-year survival was 42.5%, 29.0%, and 17.5% in patients with resectable, borderline-resectable, and locally advanced disease at diagnosis, respectively. Independent predictors of long-term survival included low comorbidity burden, baseline CA19-9 <200 U/mL, resectable disease at diagnosis, ypT0-1 stage, and R0 resection.

Over one-third of patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy and resection for localized PDAC were alive at 5 years, and most remained disease-free. Long-term outcomes were primarily determined by early systemic failure, whereas delayed oligometastatic recurrence identified a subgroup with prolonged survival.