Current and Future Distributions of Allium karataviense and A. turkestanicum in Central Asia Using MaxEnt Modeling

The genus Allium L. represents one of the most diverse groups of monocotyledonous plants in Central Asia, a region recognized as a major center of its diversity. However, ongoing climate change poses a serious threat to the distribution and persistence of many wild species, including Allium. In this study, we applied Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to assess the current and future potential distributions of Allium karataviense Regel and A. turkestanicum Regel under three climate change scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, ssp585) and three time periods (2030s, 2070s, and 2090s). The models demonstrated high predictive performance, with AUC values of 0.957 for A. karataviense and 0.935 for A. turkestanicum. Results of environmental variable contributions showed that A. karataviense adapted to mountainous environments, while A. turkestanicum adapted to arid lowland habitats. Future distribution areas revealed contrasting responses to climate change. A. karataviense is expected to maintain or moderately expand its suitable habitats, whereas A. turkestanicum shows a consistent decline in total suitable area across all scenarios. Centroid migration analysis confirmed the stability of A. karataviense and the sensitivity of A. turkestanicum to climatic changes. The overlap between highly suitable habitats and existing protected areas remains limited. Based on the modeling results, the Western Tien Shan, including the Karatau and Chu-Ili Mountains, is identified as a potential Important Plant Area (IPA), where suitable habitats of both species overlap. Overall, this study highlights the diverse responses of plant species to climate change and emphasizes the need for targeted, climate-informed conservation strategies to protect Central Asian wild plant diversity.