Phenotypic and genotypic risk factors for uveal melanoma in a high ambient UV radiation environment

Most evidence regarding risk factors for uveal melanoma (UM) derives from case-control studies prone to recall bias, and its rarity has limited prospective research. To address these gaps, we applied a population-based case-control design incorporating polygenic risk scores and Mendelian randomization to explore genetic and phenotypic determinants of UM risk.

The study was conducted in Queensland, Australia. Incident UM cases diagnosed between 2011 and 2022 were recruited through specialist ocular oncology clinics. Controls were participants in the QSkin Sun and Health Study, a prospective cohort of 43,794 adults aged 40-69 at baseline (2010-2011). Demographic, phenotypic, and sun exposure factors were harmonized across studies. Polygenic risk scores were calculated for pigmentation traits and nevi characteristics using genome-wide association study datasets, and Mendelian randomization was used to assess potential causal relationships with UM risk.

Among 485 UM cases and 43,724 controls, several phenotypic traits were strongly associated with UM risk: male sex, blue or light eye color, inability to tan, freckling, and high nevus density. A family history of cutaneous melanoma and a personal history of keratinocyte cancer were also associated with higher risk. Polygenic risk score analyses confirmed significant associations for eye color and freckling. Mendelian randomization analyses supported causal relationships between lighter eye color, freckling propensity, reduced tanning ability and UM risk.

These findings provide genetic evidence supporting a causal role for pigmentation-related traits in UM susceptibility.

This evidence may help refine risk assessment and inform counselling for individuals with suspicious ocular lesions.