Dengue Surge in Bangladesh: Exploring the Role of Climate Factors-A Narrative Review With Ecological Analysis

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infection, poses a significant public health challenge in Bangladesh, with a recent surge in reported dengue cases and fatalities at the national level. This paper aims to investigate the association between climatic factors and the 2023 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh, with a particular focus on Dhaka City. It also explores factors contributing to the surge in cases and atypical features observed.

A structured narrative review was conducted alongside an ecological analysis of secondary data. The study utilized epidemiological data on reported dengue cases and climate variables, including climate data from 2019 to 2023. Relevant scientific literature on dengue and climate change was also reviewed. Monthly trends were analyzed, and associations between dengue incidence and temperature variables were assessed. Findings were interpreted descriptively in the context of existing literature.

There was a concerning rise in dengue cases and fatalities in Bangladesh during 2023. Notably, Dhaka City experienced a surge in cases from June to December despite a slight decrease in average temperatures compared to previous years. This surge suggests a possible shift in transmission dynamics under changing environmental conditions. However, when data from all 5 years were aggregated and analyzed using average monthly temperature values, a statistically significant correlation was observed between dengue cases and minimum temperature (p = 0.04), whereas no statistically significant correlation was observed with maximum temperature. Reports from selected clinical studies suggest atypical presentations and a decrease in the characteristic skin rash were observed in hospitalized children, although these findings are not based on nationally representative data.

The 2023 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights a complex and multifactorial relationship between climate factors and dengue transmission. This highlights the need to prioritize climate change research, developing a tetravalent dengue vaccine, and implementing proactive vector control measures. Collaborative efforts involving health agencies, researchers, and policymakers are essential to combat this evolving public health challenge.