Climate-Driven Shifts in Wind Energy Potential Across Central Asia Based on a Multi-Model Ensemble and Tier-Based...

Reliable assessment of future wind energy resources is crucial forsustainable energy planning in Central Asia (CA), where wind patterns arehighly sensitive to climate change. This study assesses historical andprojected 100 m wind speed during 1992-2100 using multi-ensemble outputs fromthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under SharedSocioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), bias-corrected using EuropeanCentre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis. We developeda novel ranking framework integrating seasonal variability, Weibull-based windcharacterization, and exceedance probabilities, while accounting for scenariosensitivity. Historically, seasonal wind speeds increased during spring andsummer, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan; however, SSP5-8.5projections indicate widespread declines, especially in fall. Seasonal shiftsalso emerge, with peak wind months moving from spring to winter or summer.These changes produce clear differences in site stability: Kazakhstan hosts∼23% of Tier 1 sites, Kyrgyzstan 〈2%, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan aredominated by Tier 5 sites requiring case-specific evaluation. Overall, the results highlight strong spatial contrasts in windenergy potential across CA and provide a robust basis for prioritizinginvestments, reducing climate-related planning uncertainty, and supportingresilient, climate-adaptive wind energy strategies.