Multi-Target HCC Blood Test Demonstrates Consistent Performance Across Subgroups of Patients with Chronic Liver...

Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is critical for improving patient outcomes; however, ultrasound-based surveillance has limited sensitivity and variable performance across patient populations. We evaluated the performance of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT), incorporating methylated DNA markers, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and patient sex, across clinically relevant subgroups.

We performed a subgroup analysis of a multicenter, prospective case-control study that included 159 patients with early-stage HCC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage 0/A) and 649 control patients with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B without HCC. The mt-HBT combined methylated HOXA1, TSPYL5, and B3GALT6 markers with AFP and sex. Sensitivity and specificity were evaluated overall and according to age, sex, obesity, liver disease etiology, Child Pugh class, and tumor size. Performance was compared with AFP and GALAD.

Overall sensitivity and specificity of mt-HBT for early-stage HCC detection were 76.7% (95% CI, 69.6-82.6) and 87.5% (95% CI, 84.8-89.8), respectively. Sensitivity was significantly higher than that of AFP (35.2%, p < 0.001) and comparable to that of GALAD (78.6%, p = 0.56), whereas specificity was lower than that of AFP (98.5%, p < 0.001) but higher than that of GALAD (76.9%, p < 0.001). Sensitivity was maintained across key subgroups, including patients with obesity (68.9%), Child Pugh B cirrhosis (75.0%), hepatitis C (80.0%), hepatitis B (72.2%), alcohol-associated liver disease (80.5%), and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic disease (69.0%) (all p > 0.05 between subgroups). Specificity exceeded 80% in all examined populations and was significantly higher in women than in men (92.5% vs. 83.9%, p < 0.001). Sensitivity increased with tumor size, ranging from 60.0% for tumors < 2 cm to 100% for tumors > 5 cm.

The mt-HBT demonstrated robust, consistent performance for early-stage HCC detection across diverse patient populations, including subgroups in which ultrasound surveillance commonly underperforms. These findings support the prospective validation of mt-HBT as a blood-based surveillance strategy for HCC.