A Comparative Analysis of Multiple Myeloma Disease Burden in China and Globally From 1990 to 2023 and Future Trend...

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a prevalent hematologic malignancy. A systematic comparison of the temporal trends in MM disease burden between China and the global level is important for optimizing prevention and control strategies. This study describes trends in the age- and sex-specific burden of MM in China from 1990 to 2023, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); projects sex-specific incidence to 2050; and compares findings globally.

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database, we extracted data on MM in China and globally from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) for trend analysis, with comprehensive comparisons by age and sex. In addition, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling was used to describe and predict sex-specific trends in MM incidence through 2050, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) reported for GBD estimates and BAPC projections.

From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of MM increased from 0.30 to 0.94 per 100,000 people in China, and the global ASIR increased from 1.59 to 1.95 per 100,000. In China, the AAPC was 3.70%, well above the global level of 0.65%. Comparable differences were observed in prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. The burden of disease increased substantially with advancing age and was higher in males. The BAPC model suggested that by 2050, the ASIR for females in China may surpass that for males, whereas the global ASIR for both sexes is projected to continue to rise.

The disease burden of MM in China has risen substantially faster than the global average over the past three decades and is expected to continue increasing, particularly among females. Priority public health strategies for prevention and control are essential to address this growing public health issue.