Evolution and heterogeneity of lethal metastatic bladder cancer subtypes

Histological variation is a prognostic feature of metastatic urothelial cancer^1-3, but its evolutionary trajectory remains poorly defined. We developed a metastatic bladder cancer rapid autopsy programme enriched in histological subtypes⁴ to profile individuals with terminal disease. Here by reconstructing the evolutionary histories of patient tumours, we show that metastasis-to-metastasis seeding is the dominant pattern of cancer spread and that increased polyclonal migration predicts poor prognosis. The burden, heterogeneity and timing of genomic alterations differ markedly among histological subtypes. Plasmacytoid and neuroendocrine variants develop early driver alterations associated with shorter survival. Mutational signature analyses and experimental models demonstrated that plasmacytoid tumours uniquely use the Fanconi anaemia pathway to mitigate chemotherapy-induced genomic scarring. Single-nucleus profiling revealed mixed cell states in histological subtypes and an association between transcriptional heterogeneity and patient survival. Characterization of the tumour microenvironment uncovered distinct immune states across subtypes, with plasmacytoid tumours exhibiting immune-inflamed profiles, whereas squamous tumours are predominantly immunosuppressive. Last, we demonstrate that post-mortem cell-free DNA captures genomic and transcriptional heterogeneity of the subtypes, which provides a potential strategy for noninvasive assessment of tumour identity and aggressiveness. Our results provide new insights into how tumour heterogeneity shapes the evolutionary history of disease progression in bladder cancer histological subtypes.