Ecological stability of zooplankton communities in changing arctic lakes over three decades

In the Arctic, rapid warming is altering disturbance regimes, creating an urgent need to assess the ecological stability of these relatively pristine ecosystems. The Arctic landscape has thousands of lakes that are experiencing both gradual, persistent disturbances (e.g., warming) and increased frequency and intensity of pulse disturbances (e.g., land-surface failures). To assess the ecological stability of lake communities in a changing environment, we analyzed long-term data (14-39 years) on zooplankton communities and environmental variables from 25 lakes in arctic Alaska. We characterized long-term change and evaluated the resistance and recovery of communities to natural or experimental disturbances. We hypothesized that reference lakes would demonstrate resistance to background environmental change, represented by variable but consistent relative abundances over time, while manipulated or disturbed lakes would show recovery after the disturbance ceased, as represented by directional changes in relative abundance with return to pre-disturbance conditions. Environmental variables including water conductivity, chlorophyll-a, NO₃ ^-, pH, dissolved oxygen, light extinction, and soluble reactive phosphorus changed directionally through time, suggesting press effects due to climate change. Zooplankton communities were resistant to environmental change in undisturbed lakes, but, despite monitoring lakes for up to 28 years after disturbance, few lakes showed evidence of recovery to pre-disturbance conditions. This lack of recovery may indicate shifting baselines due to environmental change. The variation we did observe was largely due to shifts in species relative abundance rather than in species turnover, and this variability was related to lake depth. Zooplankton communities and environmental variables displayed more interannual variation in shallow (depth ≤6 m) lakes than in deep lakes. Overall, our results demonstrate that arctic zooplankton communities have high resistance to the effects of climate change but potentially low recovery or long recovery times to pulse disturbances.