Does Research Predict Career Trajectory? A Nationwide Analysis of Plastic Surgery Residents From 2020 to 2024

Selection of applicants for plastic surgery training is based on multiple criteria, with an increasing emphasis on scholarly productivity. However, it is unclear whether research productivity before training predicts future academic success in residency or practice. This study examines the association between research productivity before residency and subsequent career trajectory in the modern era.

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of graduates from all Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited integrated and independent plastic surgery training programs between 2020 and 2024. Collected variables included demographic characteristics, training program attributes, and posttraining career trajectory. Research productivity was assessed by the number of peer-reviewed publications at the time of application, during integrated or independent residency, and after training.

A total of 1049 plastic surgeons were included in the study. Applicants pursuing independent pathways had significantly fewer publications at the time of general surgery residency application than those applying for integrated programs, but had accumulated more publications at the time of plastic surgery application than integrated applicants. The completion of a 1-year fellowship predicted a long-term career in academia versus private practice (P < 0.001), whereas early research productivity (P = 0.659) and fellowship subspecialty (P = 0.051) did not reach significance.

Scholarly productivity has assumed an increasingly prominent role in the evaluation of plastic surgery applicants. However, research productivity before residency may not predict future academic success or practice. Further work to evaluate the relationship between research productivity and clinical skills may help elucidate the usefulness of this metric in the residency selection process.