iMTSS: an integrated framework for biology- and patient-driven prognosis in myelofibrosis undergoing transplantation

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation is the only curative treatment for myelofibrosis, but failure occurs by two mechanistically distinct routes: relapse of the neoplasm, which reflects its underlying genetics, and non-relapse mortality, which reflects whether the patient and graft tolerate the procedure. Established prognostic systems either lack molecular granularity or were derived in the non-transplant setting, and all collapse these two routes into a single survival estimate. None can indicate why an individual patient is at risk, or which class of intervention might reduce that risk.

To determine why an individual patient is at risk and to develop and validate an integrated framework that quantifies biology- and patient-driven prognosis.

We analyzed 1,550 adults undergoing first allogeneic transplantation for primary or secondary myelofibrosis across international centers, the largest genomically annotated transplant cohort in this disease. The cohort was split into development (n=930) and validation (n=620) sets. Overall survival was modeled by Cox regression; relapse and non-relapse mortality were modeled as competing events by Fine-Gray subdistribution-hazard regression at 2 years. Discrimination was assessed by the concordance index with bootstrap confidence intervals. The molecular contribution was quantified by variance decomposition of, and robustness to the analytic choices was examined by resampling.

A genetically defined disease-intrinsic axis, including TP53 allelic state, RAS pathway mutations, ASXL1 and driver genotype, blasts and blood counts, predicted 2 year relapse incidence (validation concordance 0.69, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.74), whereas a non-overlapping host and structural axis, including portal vein thrombosis, donor type, patients' performance status, and age predicted 2-year non-relapse mortality (0.63, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68). The two scores shared only 3.4% of their variance, indicating that a patient's disease genetics carried almost no information about non-relapse mortality. Variance decomposition showed that TP53 allelic state alone accounted for 30% of the relapse score. Recombined, the framework discriminated overall survival (concordance 0.640, 95% CI 0.616 to 0.662) better than every established prognostic system. For proof of concept, 3 risk groups separated in the validation cohort, with 5 year survival of 72%, 58%, and 39% (P<0.001), and the models were well calibrated.

Relapse and non-relapse mortality after transplantation for myelofibrosis are governed by distinct dimensions. Estimating both outcomes independently with genetic and clinical information, in addition to overall survival, establishes an individualized basis for transplant decision-making. The calculator is openly available (https://imtss-calculator.com).