Current-future burden concerning musculoskeletal diseases and high body mass index

This study aims to systematically assess the global burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) and to analyze its temporal trends and cross-national inequalities. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We quantified the temporal trends by calculating the estimated annual percentage change of the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the significant turning points in the ASDR. The cross-national inequality situation was evaluated using the sociodemographic index (SDI). The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was constructed to predict the disease burden up to 2050. Over the past 30 years, the ASDR for MSK diseases attributable to high BMI increased substantially from 110.57 per 100,000 in 1990 to 155.33 per 100,000 in 2021. In 2021, the ASDR of MSK diseases attributable to high BMI was highest in areas with high SDI and lowest in areas with low SDI, and there was a clear positive association between the ASDR of MSK diseases attributable to high BMI and SDI levels. By sex and age, the burden of MSK disease attributable to high BMI is much higher in women than in men, and disability-adjusted life years cases of MSK disease attributable to high BMI peak in the 55 to 59 age group, globally. Cross-country inequality analysis showed that there were clear absolute and relative SDI-related inequalities in disability-adjusted life years of MSK disease attributable to high BMI in 204 countries and regions, with countries and regions with higher SDI bearing a disproportionate burden. In addition, the global burden of MSK disease attributable to high BMI is likely to increase further between 2022 and 2050. Since 1990, the global burden of MSK diseases attributable to high BMI has been clearly rising. The burden of MSK disease attributable to high BMI varies significantly across countries, regions, genders, and ages. Public health strategies that address obesity risk factors are critical to reducing the growing burden of MSK disease.