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Published on: February 25, 2013
[Visualization of period prevalence in dynamic populations: a teaching design and preliminary application]
1Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory for Health Technology Assessment, National Health Commission, Key laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Abstract:
There is a persistent inconsistency between the definition of period prevalence (PP) and its practical calculation, which poses a challenge in teaching epidemiology. This paper proposes a visual teaching design for a "three-tiered relationship diagram of disease duration, case numbers and population size within a dynamic population", based on a unified timeline. First, cases are classified into four categories according to the relationship between disease duration and the study period, with a clear distinction between new and pre-existing cases. Second, the person-time (area under the curve) interpretations of the integrals of real-time case counts, cumulative case counts, their maximum value, and population size over time are explained. Third, a theoretical PP formula based on the person-time ratio is established, from which two simplified formulas are derived. The relationships among the three formulas are clarified, and their application is demonstrated using examples of type 2 diabetes and influenza. Centered on the relational graph, this teaching design integrates conceptual analysis, formula derivation, and case validation. A small-scale pilot teaching session has shown preliminary effectiveness, and directions for future application and research are discussed.
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