[Interpretability-driven Analysis of Carbon Storage in the Yellow River Delta Based on SHAP-XGBoost Model]

Ecosystem carbon storage is an indicator of climate change. Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of carbon storage can provide natural solutions to climate change. Based on the five-period land use data of the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020， the InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Yellow River Delta. The CA-Markov model was coupled to predict the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yellow River Delta under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological protection in 2030 and 2060. Finally， the SHAP-XGBoost model was used to explain the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage. The results showed that： ① From 1980 to 2020， the land use types changed significantly. The construction land increased by 503.40 km²， while the cultivated land and water area lost 123.47 km² and 313.18 km²， respectively. The proportion of ecological land and unused land such as forest land and grassland was small and showed a downward trend. ② From 1980 to 2020， the carbon stocks were 52.88×10⁶， 76.77×10⁶， 36.92×10⁶， 32.71×10⁶， and 49.94×10⁶ t， respectively. Under the natural development scenario， the carbon stocks in 2030 and 2060 were 41.92×10⁶ t and 41.21×10⁶ t， respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario， the carbon stocks in 2030 and 2060 were 51.24×10⁶ t and 60.33×10⁶ t， respectively， indicating that ecological protection could significantly increase the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. ③ The main driving forces of the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 were the distance from high speed， distance from railway， and NDVI. The relationship between annual average temperature and carbon storage was more complex， and the overall effect was positive. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the restoration and management of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yellow River Delta.