[Interactive Mechanism of Carbon Emission Efficiency and Emission Reduction Potential in Chinese Provincial...

As the second largest carbon emitter and a sector with significant potential for carbon reduction in China， the construction industry plays a pivotal role in achieving the country's "dual carbon" goals. This study adopts the non-discretionary output super-efficiency SBM model to evaluate the carbon emission efficiency （CEE） of China's construction industry from 2010 to 2021. From the dual perspective of "fairness-efficiency，" a carbon reduction potential index is developed to quantify the carbon reduction potential （CRP） of China's construction industry during the same period. The Dagum Gini coefficient and standard deviation ellipse are employed to analyze spatial disparities and shifts in the center of gravity of carbon reduction potential. Finally， the PVAR model is used to further investigate the interactive relationship between carbon emission efficiency and carbon reduction potential in the construction industry. The findings indicate that： ① The carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry exhibited an "N"-shaped decline， with a spatial differentiation pattern characterized by eastern > central > national > western regions. ② The carbon reduction potential of the construction industry initially followed an "M"-shaped decline and subsequently fluctuated downward， with a spatial differentiation pattern of eastern > national > western > central regions. Most provincial areas possessed substantial carbon reduction potential. ③ The Gini coefficient of carbon reduction potential in the national， central， and western regions generally showed an upward fluctuation trend， indicating increasing disparities； in the eastern region， it demonstrated an "M"-shaped decline， reflecting decreasing disparities. The primary source of differences transitioned from inter-regional disparities to super-density variation. ④ The center of gravity of the standard deviation ellipse primarily shifted southeastward， revealing an overall convergence trend and presenting a differentiated spatial structure in specific directions. The overall distribution direction evolved from "northeast-southwest" to "southeast-northwest" and then reverted to "northeast-southwest." ⑤ A negative dynamic relationship existed between carbon emission efficiency and carbon reduction potential in the national and central regions， whereas in the eastern and western regions， it manifested as a one-way relationship.