[Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions and Emission Reduction Pathways in Industry-dominated Cities： A Case Study...

A carbon emission prediction model for Lanzhou's industries was established based on the long-term energy alternatives planning system （LEAP）， and the evolution paths of carbon emissions under different policy scenarios from 2023 to 2060 were systematically analyzed. Taking 2023 as the base year， four policy scenarios were set： the base scenario， the industrial structure optimization scenario， the energy transition scenario， and the blueprint scenario. Through quantitative simulation， the feasible paths for Lanzhou to achieve its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals were revealed. The results show that in the base scenario without policy intervention， Lanzhou's energy consumption will continue to grow， increasing from 34.3×10⁶ t in 2023 to 59.7×10⁶ t in 2060， and carbon emissions will rise from 64.4×10⁶ t to 81×10⁶ t， making it difficult to achieve the expected carbon peaking target. After implementing emission reduction policies， the industrial structure optimization， energy transition， and blueprint scenarios will peak in 2029， with peak values of 69×10⁶ t， 72.9×10⁶ t， and 68.2×10⁶ t， respectively. The results of the emission reduction contribution rate showed that industrial structure optimization contributed 40% of the emission reduction in the short term， but the long-term contribution rate dropped to 22%； the contribution rate of energy structure transformation steadily increased from 11% to 30%； and the blueprint scenario maintained an emission reduction contribution rate of 48%-49% through policy coordination， highlighting the effectiveness of multi-dimensional emission reduction strategies.