[Land Use Conflict Identification and Multi-scenario Simulation Evolution in Henan Province Based on PLUS Model]

Accurate identification and dynamic measurement of land use conflicts is an important basis for analyzing regional land use dynamics， optimizing spatial layout， and promoting sustainable development. Taking Henan Province as an example， this study utilizes five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 to construct a land use conflict identification model based on land use landscape pattern， systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts at both county and grid scales， and employs the PLUS model to simulate conflict patterns under different development scenarios for Henan Province by 2035. The results show that： ① During the study period， cultivated land area decreased from 108 531.03 km² to 103 327.43 km²， representing a decline of 4.79%， and construction land expanded significantly， increasing from 17 262.72 km² to 22 152.55 km²， an increase of 28.33%. ② From 2000 to 2020， land use conflicts in Henan Province were predominantly controllable. The average conflict index at the grid scale fluctuated downward from 0.41 to 0.40. However， the proportion of severely uncontrolled areas increased from 0.71% to 8.51%， indicating a significant intensification of localized conflicts. In terms of spatial distribution， controllable conflict zones were concentrated in areas with minimal human activity， such as forested regions and mountainous areas， exhibiting stable patterns. Conversely， uncontrollable conflict zones showed significant changes. Since 2005， driven by industrialization and urbanization， both the extent and severity of land use conflicts have markedly increased in urban centers， densely populated areas， and their surrounding regions. ③ Simulations of multiple land use conflict scenarios in Henan Province for 2035 indicated that the proportion of uncontrolled units remained below 50% across all four scenarios. Among these， the urban development scenario exhibited the most severe conflicts， with uncontrolled units accounting for 47.11%. The ecological protection and arable land priority scenarios exhibited lower conflict levels. The ecological protection scenario had 59.7% controllable units， while the arable land priority scenario had 70.89% controllable units； only 1.15% of units were severely uncontrollable， and the combined proportion of units with basic uncontrollable and severely uncontrollable was minimal. Therefore， the arable land priority scenario represents the optimal development path for Henan's future land use. The results of the study can provide scientific reference for Henan Province to coordinate arable land conservation with urbanization development and formulate scientifically sound land use policies.