[Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of Habitat Quality of Production Living Ecological Spaces in the...

Studying the spatio-temporal pattern of the evolution of the quality of the Production Living Ecological Spaces in the Heihe River Basin is of practical significance for understanding the current ecological situation and promoting sustainable development in the region. This study classifies the Production Living Ecological Spaces based on the land use data of the Heihe River Basin from 1990 to 2023. Using the FLUS-InVEST model and GIS platform and coupling 11 driving factors， it simulates and predicts the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the Production Living Ecological Spaces and their habitat quality under the three scenarios of production space priority， living space priority， and ecological space priority in 2035. The results show that： ① From 1990 to 2023， the area of agricultural production space in the Heihe River Basin increased by 1 184.23 km²， mainly due to the conversion of unused land and grassland； the area of water ecological land increased by 20.96%； and the areas of forest and grassland ecological land decreased by 167.04 km² and 606.31 km²， respectively. ② From 1990 to 2023， the annual change rate of habitat quality in the Heihe River Basin was -0.013%·a^-1. High-quality and very high-quality areas mainly transferred to medium-quality and low-quality areas， with a reduction of 786.15 km² in area. Their centers of gravity moved 17.61 km to the northwest and 21.66 km to the northeast， respectively； the area of low-quality areas increased by 7 178.28 km²， and the center of gravity of low-quality areas moved 52.77 km towards the oasis area in the middle and upper reaches. ③ Compared with those in 2020， in the production space priority scenario in 2035， the areas of forest and grassland decreased by 271.23 km² and 800.71 km²， respectively， under the living space priority development scenario， and the area of urban living space increased significantly， while the areas of forest and grassland ecological land continued to decrease. Under the ecological space priority development scenario， the area of forest land increased by 17.76 km². The decrease in grassland area was the smallest in this scenario. ④ In 2035， the average HQ values of the Production Living Ecological Spaces priority development scenarios were 0.376 9， 0.377 1， and 0.381 5， respectively. Among them， the HQ values of the Production Living Ecological Spaces priority scenarios decreased by 1.13% and 1.08% compared with those in 2020， mainly due to the reduction in the area of high-quality and very high-quality areas. However， under the ecological space priority scenario， the area of high-quality areas increased by 234.70 km²， and the HQ value increased by 0.08%， 1.22%， and 1.17% compared with that in 2020 and the other two scenarios， respectively. The research results can provide multi-perspective references for ecological governance and the coordinated development of the Production Living Ecological Spaces in the Heihe River Basin in the future.