[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Economic Belt]

Conducting landscape ecological risk assessment and exploring driving factors can provide scientific support for ecological protection and high-quality development. The Yangtze River Economic Belt was selected as the study area， and multi-temporal remote sensing land-use data from 2010， 2015， and 2020 was utilized to construct a landscape ecological risk assessment model employing landscape pattern indices. We conducted a land type distribution analysis to explore the temporal and spatial fluctuations in landscape ecological risks. The Moran index was utilized to examine the spatial correlation and clustering patterns of landscape ecological risks， while the optimal parameter Geodetector was applied to investigate the driving forces of impact factors. The results indicate：① Arable land， forests， and grasslands constituted the principal categories of land. Between 2010 and 2015， the region experiencing changes in land use constituted 0.77% of the whole research area； however， from 2015 to 2020， this region represented 29.80% of the total study area， signifying substantial variations in land use patterns. ② The principal levels of landscape ecological risk were low risk， lower risk， and medium risk. High-risk regions were predominantly located in the Yangtze River Delta， the Su-Wan Floodplain， the Jianghan Plain， the Dongting Lake Plain， the Poyang Lake Plain， and the foothills of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in northwestern Sichuan Province. The ecological hazards in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River exceeded those found in the upper reaches. ③ From 2010 to 2015， landscape ecological risk alterations were predominantly observed in lower-risk areas， which evolved into low ecological risk zones. The magnitude of these alterations was more pronounced in the higher reaches than in the middle and lower reaches. It was evident that between the years 2015 and 2020， the region exhibiting elevated risk levels surpassed that of reduced risks， and the magnitude of alterations in risk levels was more pronounced. The distribution of landscape ecological risk demonstrated a positive spatial association， characterized by a generally consistent spatial clustering pattern. Initially， high-high clustering rose before declining， whereas low-low clustering persisted in its decline. ④ The level of human disturbance， land use intensity， NDVI， and slope have been identified as significant determinants of landscape ecological risk in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The explanatory power of pairwise interactions between driving factors was enhanced. The results of the research are of significance for the optimization of ecological compensation and sustainable development planning in the study area.