[Social-ecological System Risk Assessment and Management Zoning in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from a...

The interaction of multiple risk factors between natural systems and human societies during rapid urbanization poses significant ecological risk to regions. Scientifically assessing and managing these risks is crucial for regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study adopts a multi-source risk spatio-temporal dynamic relationship perspective， incorporating the social-ecological system （SES） framework to assess and analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem risk， social system risk， and comprehensive ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） Region from 2000 to 2020. Based on the spatio-temporal dynamic correlations among different risk types， the study area is categorized into six sub-regions and three macro-regions using bivariate spatial autocorrelation and hot spot-cold spot analysis. Furthermore， optimal parameters-based Geodetector analysis is employed to investigate the driving differences of comprehensive ecological risks across the entire region and within each partitioned zone. The results show that： ① The mean values of ecosystem risk， social system risk， and comprehensive ecological risk in the BTH Region were 0.464， 0.299， and 0.381， respectively. Their distribution exhibited a spatial pattern of low values in the northwest and high values in the southeast. The risk levels of various types along the Yanshan-Taihang Mountains were relatively low， and the risk in plain areas was significantly higher than that in mountainous areas， with ecosystem risk being stronger than social system risk. ② Over the past 20 years， ecosystem risk decreased by 2.55% and social system risk increased by 2.01%， resulting in a slight decrease （0.78%） in comprehensive ecological risk. Comprehensive ecological risk decreased significantly in the northwestern mountainous areas and the coastal wetlands in the eastern plains. Urbanized areas exhibited a ring structure： constant risk levels in the core and increased risk in the peripheral zones. ③ A significant and strengthening positive spatial correlation existed between ecosystem risk and social system risk. The proportions of areas with significantly increased and decreased comprehensive ecological risks were 18.63% and 19.06%， respectively. Emergency control macro-zones were concentrated in urban expansion fringes， key control macro-zones were located within urban core areas， and close monitoring macro-zones were distributed in the urban periphery and coastal belts. Dynamic regulation macro-zones covered the most extensive area， while preventive management macro-zones and conservation macro-zones were primarily situated within the Yanshan-Taihang Mountains Ecological Functional Area. ④Topography， urban construction， and socio-economic activities dominated the spatial differentiation of comprehensive ecological risk across the entire region and within monitoring macro-zones. Urban construction exerted a particularly prominent influence within control macro-zones. Land surface cover served as the primary controlling factor in preventive macro-zones. The percentage of built-up land and slope gradient represented the strongest interactive factors for the entire region and monitoring macro-zones. Within control macro-zones， the percentage of built-up land and vegetation coverage formed the strongest interactive pair. Vegetation coverage and the bare soil index emerged as the strongest interactive factors in preventive macro-zones. The research findings provide valuable references for implementing precise ecological risk management and promoting socio-economic sustainable development in the region.