MaxEnt-based suitable areas analysis of global lumpy skin disease under current and future climate scenarios

Lumpy skin disease is an acute and subacute systemic infectious disease of cattle and buffalo.

This study aimed to map the environmental suitable areas of lumpy skin disease under current and future climate scenarios using the MaxEnt model. Environmental variables were screened to construct distribution models for lumpy skin disease and its vector Stomoxys calcitrans. Then, their overlapping suitable areas were overlapped to identify highly suitable areas.

Key environmental variables influencing the environmental suitability of lumpy skin disease include cattle and buffalo distribution densities, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, and annual precipitation. Model performance was evaluated using AUC, TSS, and test omission rate, indicating good predictive ability. Under the future climate scenarios, climatically suitable areas for lumpy skin disease expanded, primarily in mid- to high-latitude regions between 40º and 70º, including the south-central U.S., northeastern Argentina, southeastern Brazil, Europe (excluding northern Europe, such as Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), the Mediterranean coastal areas of North Africa (such as Tunisia, northern Algeria, and Morocco), Turkey, Tajikistan, northern India, eastern China, South Korea, central and southern Japan, northern Indochina, and eastern Australia.

These results represent environmental suitability rather than actual disease risk, which also depends on factors such as animal movement, trade, vaccination, and surveillance. These findings offer valuable insights for the prevention and control of lumpy skin disease, mitigating both the suitable areas of disease occurrence and associated economic losses.