Psychological assessments predict insider threat risk-mitigation measures, but only marginally

Insider threat actions are often linked to individual psychological characteristics, yet the predictive utility of assessing such characteristics within operational personnel security frameworks remains unclear. The present study examined whether demographic and psychological assessment variables from the Swedish military selection process were associated with subsequent personnel security investigations resulting in adjudicative decisions within the Swedish Armed Forces. Data linked selection assessments conducted between 2010 and 2017 to 650 adjudicated investigation cases recorded between 2010 and 2023. Psychological measures included cognitive ability scores and interview-based ratings of psychological functioning and suitability for command. Separate logistic regression analyses compared two control samples with cases involving pre-existing antecedents, which were present at the time of assessment, and emergent antecedents, which arose later during service. Age at assessment and sex showed the strongest association with adjudicated investigations, whereas the psychological assessments showed weaker and less stable associations. Multivariate models demonstrated modest explanatory power, with pseudo-R ² values ranging from approximately 0.06 to 0.16. Broad psychological assessments thus demonstrated limited utility for distinguishing adjudicated investigations from controls, and their potential value as supplementary tools in highly sensitive contexts requires prospective evaluation and validation against clearly defined outcomes.